Rapid TV News recently carried a story reporting on a forecast of a 225 Million market for Set-Top Boxes globally over the next five years, worth - said the study - $24 Billion. Europe was expected to take some 25% of this total. The very next day a Sony story emerged about the Open Cable GAVA-based deal which they had struck with US cable players and suggesting that STBs have no future, that all this functionality will be embedded in the TV set. Huw, do you see a future for Set-topboxes?
Huw Price-Stephens, Amino
There is definitely a market for STBs. Now I would say that, wouldn't I? But let's apply some very simple logic to this. There is certainly going to be a gravitation towards placing more and more technology into the TV set. There might be from the conventional broadcast industry or it might be IPTV itself, but if you look at buying cycles for the technologies that are in the market today and the cost of those products, we will be faced with a situation for the foreseeable future when people are purchasing TVs that do not have all these capabilities on board and they are required to connect to an advanced TV service. As long as this situation persists, there will be a need for set top boxes. An interesting discussion then follows on, asking where the technology comes from that is built into TVs and enhances that opportunity? Obviously the ‘tru2way' initiative which came from Open Cable is a set of standards which have evolved over several years and I don't think Sony is the first major TV manufacturer to incorporate that technology in some of their sets. I expect the same to happen over a period of time with the kind of IPTV functionality that we have but it will take many, many years. And any projection which talks of the demise of the STB over the next few years would be a great exaggeration.
Paul Entwistle, Pace
You will not be surprised to hear me agree with Huw. But look also at the kinds of things we are putting into STBs. Multi-tuner PVRs with home networking, the sheer rate of change of technology that's going into a Set-Top Box. Look at Mpeg 2 and how it's quickly changed to H.264. Had you invested in a television that was only good for Mpeg 2, then today you would have a problem. You will need a STB to supplement that service. The same will apply to high definition in the UK and some other European markets when HD is carried on digital terrestrial. Users might well have bought a TV set which had the digital tick just a year or two ago and will discover that without a STB, the TV is obsolete. I think STBs will be around for a long time to come.
Chris Forrester
Does the rate of change mean that STBs have to be changed every few years?
Paul Entwistle, Pace
As long as compelling services continue to be provided, whatever that may be, then consumers will be prepared to change.
Ian Valentine, Miniweb
Isn't it crazy that the whole industry still calls STBs as Set-Top Boxes when the one place they don't go today is on top of the TV Set? I think the fact that the technology has now been around for so long indicates it will be with us for some time to come. The bottom line is all about standards. In a particular country, if there are ubiquitous standards, then these will get built into TV sets and the fact that in the UK MHEG 5 is built into all digital terrestrial TVs is a good example of this. What the ‘tru2way' announcement suggests is that now the standards are so mature that it can be safely built into TVs. If such a technology is 100% standardised, then this might be a good thing where consumers buy TVs, but in multi-territory world and in a world where you have satellite and cable and IP sitting alongside one another, it is unlikely to happen.
José Luis Vázquez, Mirada
This ‘tru2way' is very good and excellent for interactivity. But the average life of a TV set is measured at between eight and 10 years. And whether it takes three or five or seven years, we are going to have connected homes one of these days. But two important issues must be faced. First is connectivity. Broadband and broadcast will be combined.
Second is storage. And storage evolves very, very quickly and nobody wants to tie into a TV set with very limited storage and to imagine that today's TV set would have adequate storage in eight years' time is impossible without a STB. It has to be separate to the TV set. You cannot rely on a TV set to be stuck with one set of protocols, one set of services. It has to evolve and it can only evolve with a Set-Top Box. Nobody would buy a TV set every three years. Make the box intelligent, make the box with connectivity, you might call the box something different eight years from now but its roots will still be as an STB.
Huw Price-Stephens, Amino
We have come full circle. I totally agree. STBs will be there for a long time to come.
